Posts Tagged ‘winning numbers’

Lottery - Scams and frauds

Thursday, August 21st, 2008

Lottery, like any form of gambling, is susceptible to fraud, despite the high degree of scrutiny claimed by the organizers. One method involved is to tamper with the machine used for the number selection. By rigging a machine, it is theoretically easy to win a lottery. This act is often done in connivance with an employee of the lottery firm. Methods used vary; loaded balls where select balls are made to pop-up making it either lighter or heavier than the rest. All balls should be independently verified for materials, size, pressure, susceptibility to magnetism, and other qualities.

The most infamous case of insider lottery fraud was in Maryland in 1979. The Maryland lottery determined its winner by an air blower, where three numbers would bubble up. By injecting fluid into every ball except those numbered 4 and 6, and then buying tickets with every combination of 4 and 6, lottery personnel guaranteed themselves big winnings. There was immediate suspicion that the game had been rigged and the balls were removed for examination. The announcer was arrested and confessed two days later.

In some US States, such as Kansas and Minnesota, losing lottery tickets can be mailed in for a raffle of special prizes. The trouble with that is that employees of stores that sell lottery tickets sometimes collect the lottery tickets that are thrown away and send them in. As a lottery official put it “The retailers have an unlimited supply of free tickets. You do not need to be an FBI agent to realize that is a tremendously unfair advantage.” [5]

Some advance fee fraud scams on the Internet are based on lotteries. The fraud starts with spam congratulating the recipient on their recent lottery win. The email explains that in order to release funds the email recipient must part with a certain amount (as tax/fees) as per the rules or risk forfeiture.

Another form of lottery scam involves the selling of “systems” which purport to improve a player’s chances of selecting the winning numbers in a Lotto game. These scams are generally based on the buyer’s (and perhaps the seller’s) misunderstanding of probability and random numbers. Sale of these systems or software is legal, however, since they mention that the product cannot guarantee a win, let alone a jackpot.

Lottery - Probability of winning

Friday, August 15th, 2008

The chances of engaging a lottery jackpot are principally determined by several factors: the count of possible numbers, the count of winning numbers worn out, whether or not order is significant and whether drawn numbers are returned for the possibility of further drawing.

In a typical 6 from 49 lotto, 6 numbers are tense from 49 and if the 6 numbers on a ticket match the numbers drawn, the ticket holder is a lottery jackpot winner - this is accurately regardless of the order in which the numbers are drawn. The odds of being the jackpot winner are approximately 1 in 14 million (13,983,816 to be correct). The derivation of this result (and other winning scores) is shown in the Lottery mathematics article. To put these odds in context, imagine one buys one lottery ticket per week. 13,983,816 weeks is roughly 269,000 years; In the quarter-million years of lightly, one would expect to win the jackpot only once.

The odds of winning any actual lottery can vary widely depending on the raffle design of financial engineers. Mega Millions is a very popular multi-state lottery in the United States which is known for jackpots that develop very large from time to time. This attractive feature is made possible simply by designing the game to be extremely uncompromising to win: 1 chance in 175,711,536. That’s over twelve times higher than the example above. Mega Millions players also pick six numbers, but two disparate “bags” are used. The first five numbers come from one bag that contains numbers from 1 to 56. The sixth number — the “Mega Ball covey” — comes from the second bag, which contains numbers from 1 to 46. To win a Mega Millions jackpot, a player’s five uniform numbers must match the five regular numbers drawn and the Mega Ball number must match the Mega Ball few drawn. In other words, it is not good enough to pick 10, 18, 25, 33, 42 / 7 when the drawing is 7, 10, 25, 33, 42 / 18. Even though the player picked all the right numbers, the Mega Ball mass at the end of the ticket doesn’t match the one drawn, so the ticket would be credited with matching only four numbers (10, 25, 33, 42).

The SuperEnalotto of Italy is rumour has it the most difficult where players try to match 6 numbers out of 90. The odds in making the jackpot: 1 in 622,614,630.

Most lotteries give lesser prizes for identical just some of the winning numbers. The Mega Millions game is an extreme case, giving a very small payout (US$2) even if a competitor matches only the Mega Ball number at the end of your ticket. Matching more numbers, the payout goes up. Although none of these additional prizes strike the chances of winning the jackpot, they do improve the odds of winning something and therefore add a little to the value of the ticket. In most lotteries, if a in a body amount of smaller prizes are awarded, the jackpot will be reduced, in a similar manner that the jackpot is divided if multiple players have tickets with all the pleasant numbers.

In the UK National Lottery the smallest prize is £10 for matching three balls. There exists a Wheeling Question to create the smallest set of tickets to cover enough combinations to ensure that any 6 numbers drawn will match against at least 3 numbers on at least one of the tickets. The contemporaneous record is 163 tickets.

The expected value of lottery bets is often notably bad. In the United States, an expected value of 50% of the buy price is common. For instance, when the player buys a lottery ticket for, say, $10 he obtains a financial asset with an expected value of only $5. Hence, buying a sweepstake ticket reduces the buyer’s expected net worth. This is in contrast with financial securities like stocks and bonds whose prices are theoretically based on their expected veritable values, as expected by the markets at any given point in time.

In a famous occurrence, a Polish-Irish businessman named Stefan Klincewicz bought up almost all of the 1,947,792 combinations handy on the Irish lottery. He and his associates paid less than one million Irish pounds while the jackpot stood at £1.7 million. There were three friendly tickets, but with the “Match 4″ and “Match 5″ prizes, Klincewicz made a small profit overall.